Recollecting the Future: A View of Business, Technology, and Innovation in the Next 30 Years
by Hugh B. Stewart
Homewood, llinois: Dow Jones-Irwin, 1989
Where growth is involved, Hugh Stewart shows you how you can “recollect the future.” The methods are simple, the lessons are profound, and the message is for anyone hoping to benefit from a glimpse of the future — business people, technologists, policy planners, and all personal planners.
How can you recollect the future? Recollecting the Future shows you that the growths of new industries, energy use, and the economy all generally follow nature’s growth laws — just like biological growths. Stewart explains how growth laws can be used by any one of us, even nonmathematicians. Simple diagrams and figures are used to illustrate vividly how and why the growths behave as they do. The historical consistencies of these growths allow you to use them to recollect the future.
Why should you be interested? You will learn how to apply the principles to long-term and bust projections. You will learn how to forecast new technology growth patterns after only 5 to 10 percent of an ultimate takeover growth has occurred. You will even learn where new careers can be found in the next few decades.
For whom is this book? Any business planner unfamiliar with the “growth/ungrowth” substitution law (for new versus old technologies) has a professional obligation to learn and apply this easy but powerful forecasting tool. Any scientist or engineer unfamiliar with distinctions between improvement, basic innovations, and macroinnovations can benefit from lessons on timing of the various kinds of innovations. Any policy planner skeptical of the long-energy wave and the energy-economic relationship — and their implications — should become better acquainted with these controversial issues. And any career planner should pay special heed to job-growth trends in the professional marketplace.
Hugh B. Stewart received his bachelor’s degree in physics and chemistry from Kent State University and his Ph.D. in physics from Ohio State University. He has been affiliated with General Motors, General Electric, General Dynamics, and General Atomic as a research scientist, research engineer, research director, and engineering vice president. Since 1978 he has been an energy consultant in his own company based in San Diego, California.
Dr. Stewart’s technical publications include articles on molecular physics, aircraft-engine analysis, nuclear-reactor physics, and energy economics. These articles have been published in both national and international journals. He has contributed to three technical books and has been the sole author of one.
Recently, he has lectured on technology innovation and business growth, as well as engineering and energy economics. In his consulting work, he has counseled clients on the use of his principles involving technology forecasting and policy planning. Recollecting the Future resulted from Stewart’s conviction that a better understanding of the relationships between technology-innovation, new-business, GNEC, and GNP growths could be useful to a broader cross section of the public.